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iknowftbll
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I don't think anyone will look back at the Broncos in 2015 and argue against the narrative they relied on defense to win it all. What always comes next is the narrative that "teams that win with defense only win one at a time." What follows is some pre-canned references to the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, etc... I consider this narrative a bit shoddy considering few teams win multiple SBs in short succession, with only 2 teams repeating in the past 20 years. You can look at teams like the Steelers who won 2 (2005 and 2008) and Giants (2007 and 2011) but look at the time between wins: plenty of time to retool a team so I don't consider them valid examples. The truth is few teams, be they defense or offense oriented or solid on both sides can repeat as SB Champs. So when people say the Broncos can't rely on defense again to repeat, it's a bit of a non-starter.
Especially since the Broncos defense looks to be very good once again, and the team will be adding the additional dynamic of an improved offense. But how can we be so sure the offense will be improved? Is that just Broncos homerism on our part as fans?
I'm not even going to get into the arguments for why the defense will struggle. Incredibly there are quite a few out there and suffice to say I reject most of them as simplistic analysis: everyone piling on and wanting to be the one who foresaw the decline of a champion. But I think there are a lot of legitimate arguments for why the offense may be flat once again. Let's take a look at some of the arguments we've seen for why the Broncos offense will struggle this year and see if we can give them a realistic rebuttal.
Arguments why the Broncos offense will struggle:
The Quarterback situation. If you step back and try to see the forest though the trees it really is easy to see why the pundits would say this will be an issue for the Broncos. The team just watched all-time great Peyton Manning retire from the game while the only other QB on the roster with some experience followed the money to Houston. The Broncos responded by trading for unheralded QB Mark Sanchez, drafting Paxton Lynch, and giving fair reps to 2nd year 7th round draft pick Siemian. While plenty of rookies have come in and led their teams to quality seasons starting a rookie is almost a concession on repeating. Even if he has a good year. Siemian is too great an unknown to hype up and Sanchez is turnover prone and essentially on his last shot at being an NFL starting QB. While we know the QB situation in Denver wasn't great in 2015, it really is fair to say the Broncos have question marks here.
The Offensive Line. The line was a hot mess last year, but it was highly overhauled with last minute additions like Mathis, along with injuries like Clady and Ty Sambrailo (it's hard to actually quantify the effect this had given he was a rookie. It certainly didn't help the team though). The overhaul coincided with the transition to the ZBS, a scheme that relies heavily on trusting the guy next to you and continuity. It's not hard to see why the unit struggled last season with so many new faces and injuries. And don't look now, but in 2016 it'll be more of the same: lots of turnover on the unit, with Mathis gone, and new faces in Okung and Stephenson (not to mention the injury and performance questions regarding these additions) as well as guys like Sambrailo returning mean it really is fair to question the unit will improve much in 2016.
Tight Ends. Incredibly there have been pundits and rival fans who site the departure of Vern Davis as a key loss to the offense. That's just idiotic. But what is fair is to site the loss of Owen Daniels. It's not that Owen Daniels lit up the league, it's that he was pretty much all the Broncos had at the position. He's gone now and the players the team has waiting in the wings aren't going to scare anyone. Virgil Green is a beast at blocking and his receiving game is on the brink of a breakout. But his production, as a consequence of scheme, isn't the stuff legends are made up. It's easy to see why analysts would overlook Green. Add in the injured rookie (now 2nd year player) Heuerman and even he is an unknown. When you look at the position group it really is fair to say there are more questions than answers here.
The running game. The Broncos 2015 running game was piecemeal as the team transitioned to the ZBS, as well as running a hybrid offense between Kubiak's philosophy and Manning's skill set. The ground game was perhaps the biggest casualty from all of this. Hillman had a solid enough year but he often would be stuffed for a loss or no gain. Anderson wasn't in game shape early. While the team managed some impressive games along the way, the aggregate was pedestrian. Looking to 2016, the shakeup on the line (again) may do a lot to undermine the effectiveness of the running game. That combined with the stable of RBs still lacks someone who has PROVEN he can be a season-long starting option make this a fair critique of the offense going forward.
Now let's hear some rebuttals.
Wide Receivers. I'm going to start with the one position group nobody can criticize. Sure, we can knock DT's "off" year in which he still had 100+ catches and over 1300 yards. Yes he had a lot of drops, and his head wasn't in the game at times. But one thing DT doesn't get credit for is he is a lethal downfield blocker and in games his receiving numbers were down you can still see him on the edge of a play laying someone out. Besides, does anyone think he won't rebound? I will say this: The only reason DT isn't the most dominant receiver in the NFL is because he has not yet decided to be the most dominant receiver in the NFL. If he played more physical there would be no defending him with his size and speed. I think it's reasonable to expect some degree of that going forward because I think Kubiak's offense is going to by nature be a more physical and punishing offense. And that's just DT. Let's not forget Sanders, who is arguably the most dynamic #2 in league. And the further down the depth chart we go the more we realize one thing: if the Broncos had any more depth at WR, Congress would probably try to pass legislation to limit it. This is without question the strength of the offense in 2016, and it should give fans reason to expect improvement.
The Quarterback situation. When we look at the arguments above it's easy to forget one thing: from the standpoint of production the Broncos QBs in 2015 were, simply put, replaceable. Remove the names or the fact that one guy had been groomed in the organization for a few years. From a production standpoint the bar is really low. To assume that Sanchez or Siemian or Lynch or some combination of the three cannot do better than 19-23 TDs-INTs is hopeful at best. I initially assumed Sanchez was brought in as depth, then considered the "trade bait" angle, then realized he may be a good fit for the Kubiak offense and have long assumed Sanchez would be the starter. I don't think it's a stretch to believe he can throw for 3500 yards, and maybe a 24-14 or so TD-INT. From a pure production standpoint that is a vast improvement over 2015 numbers. Keep this in mind: In the Kubiak offense it may not be about having the best QB, it's about having the RIGHT QB.
The Offensive Line. Like the QB, this is more a matter of having the right players more so than the best players. With that said, truthfully it takes an extremely optimistic outlook to not foresee potential issues of so much turnover on the line a second straight year. I think they will be decent, but this unit will likely be the biggest weakness on offense. A more mobile QB like Sanchez really can go a long way toward helping with this, but that's a double edged sword. A mobile QB means he is not always getting the ball out fast, which is likely the best remedy for a weak O-line. If the enemy is able to contain the QB, it is going to create problems. With the potential weaknesses on offense, it is going to take the next two groups really stepping up if the offense as a whole is going to improve.
Tight ends. The two-tight end set is a crucial ingredient to the Kubiak offense, and from a blocking standpoint Virgil Green is a huge asset. The unknown here is can he be a "go-to" as a receiving option. Another wild card is 2nd year option Heuerman, who the team was very excited about in 2015 before losing him to injury. We have no clue what to expect from him, or any of the other TEs on the roster. A proof source within the system doesn't really exist, but the potential is there. But in the interest of objectivity, it is legitimately fair to temper one's optimism with this group. I think the Green-Heuerman combo is going to be solid. But that's really just a guess.
The ground game. CJ Anderson returns in better shape than ever, along with Ronnie Hillman, the team's leading rusher from 2015. Those of you who have been around for a while know I'm not a big fan of Hillman but I am actually satisfied the team brought him back for 2016. He adds depth and is a known quantity on an offense full of questions. Anderson should be his reliable self, and maybe even an upgrade over the 2015 version of himself. Adding the rookie Booker bolsters the position group but perhaps the most exciting development I can think of is the addition of the fullback Janovich. This tells me the Broncos are looking to smash people in the F***ing face on offense this year. How many drives ended on a failure to convert 3rd and short? How many FGs did the Broncos kick having failed to punch it in on a short 3rd and goal? I think it is a fair expectation to expect this unit to be a critical cog in the improvement of the offense as a whole.
So there's my short assessment, giving some arguments for why the team will struggle and some rebuttals. I don't think it's an overly optimistic outlook, and where it is, I've acknowledged it as such. You combine a reasonable expectation for improvement on offense with the expectations the defense will be dominant again and it is easy to see why we are all so excited about 2016. It's hard to repeat as Super Bowl champs. But in 2016 only one team has a chance to do it, and that team is the Denver Broncos. And looking at this off season, it should not be a forgone conclusion they won't repeat.
I welcome your thoughts.
Especially since the Broncos defense looks to be very good once again, and the team will be adding the additional dynamic of an improved offense. But how can we be so sure the offense will be improved? Is that just Broncos homerism on our part as fans?
I'm not even going to get into the arguments for why the defense will struggle. Incredibly there are quite a few out there and suffice to say I reject most of them as simplistic analysis: everyone piling on and wanting to be the one who foresaw the decline of a champion. But I think there are a lot of legitimate arguments for why the offense may be flat once again. Let's take a look at some of the arguments we've seen for why the Broncos offense will struggle this year and see if we can give them a realistic rebuttal.
Arguments why the Broncos offense will struggle:
The Quarterback situation. If you step back and try to see the forest though the trees it really is easy to see why the pundits would say this will be an issue for the Broncos. The team just watched all-time great Peyton Manning retire from the game while the only other QB on the roster with some experience followed the money to Houston. The Broncos responded by trading for unheralded QB Mark Sanchez, drafting Paxton Lynch, and giving fair reps to 2nd year 7th round draft pick Siemian. While plenty of rookies have come in and led their teams to quality seasons starting a rookie is almost a concession on repeating. Even if he has a good year. Siemian is too great an unknown to hype up and Sanchez is turnover prone and essentially on his last shot at being an NFL starting QB. While we know the QB situation in Denver wasn't great in 2015, it really is fair to say the Broncos have question marks here.
The Offensive Line. The line was a hot mess last year, but it was highly overhauled with last minute additions like Mathis, along with injuries like Clady and Ty Sambrailo (it's hard to actually quantify the effect this had given he was a rookie. It certainly didn't help the team though). The overhaul coincided with the transition to the ZBS, a scheme that relies heavily on trusting the guy next to you and continuity. It's not hard to see why the unit struggled last season with so many new faces and injuries. And don't look now, but in 2016 it'll be more of the same: lots of turnover on the unit, with Mathis gone, and new faces in Okung and Stephenson (not to mention the injury and performance questions regarding these additions) as well as guys like Sambrailo returning mean it really is fair to question the unit will improve much in 2016.
Tight Ends. Incredibly there have been pundits and rival fans who site the departure of Vern Davis as a key loss to the offense. That's just idiotic. But what is fair is to site the loss of Owen Daniels. It's not that Owen Daniels lit up the league, it's that he was pretty much all the Broncos had at the position. He's gone now and the players the team has waiting in the wings aren't going to scare anyone. Virgil Green is a beast at blocking and his receiving game is on the brink of a breakout. But his production, as a consequence of scheme, isn't the stuff legends are made up. It's easy to see why analysts would overlook Green. Add in the injured rookie (now 2nd year player) Heuerman and even he is an unknown. When you look at the position group it really is fair to say there are more questions than answers here.
The running game. The Broncos 2015 running game was piecemeal as the team transitioned to the ZBS, as well as running a hybrid offense between Kubiak's philosophy and Manning's skill set. The ground game was perhaps the biggest casualty from all of this. Hillman had a solid enough year but he often would be stuffed for a loss or no gain. Anderson wasn't in game shape early. While the team managed some impressive games along the way, the aggregate was pedestrian. Looking to 2016, the shakeup on the line (again) may do a lot to undermine the effectiveness of the running game. That combined with the stable of RBs still lacks someone who has PROVEN he can be a season-long starting option make this a fair critique of the offense going forward.
Now let's hear some rebuttals.
Wide Receivers. I'm going to start with the one position group nobody can criticize. Sure, we can knock DT's "off" year in which he still had 100+ catches and over 1300 yards. Yes he had a lot of drops, and his head wasn't in the game at times. But one thing DT doesn't get credit for is he is a lethal downfield blocker and in games his receiving numbers were down you can still see him on the edge of a play laying someone out. Besides, does anyone think he won't rebound? I will say this: The only reason DT isn't the most dominant receiver in the NFL is because he has not yet decided to be the most dominant receiver in the NFL. If he played more physical there would be no defending him with his size and speed. I think it's reasonable to expect some degree of that going forward because I think Kubiak's offense is going to by nature be a more physical and punishing offense. And that's just DT. Let's not forget Sanders, who is arguably the most dynamic #2 in league. And the further down the depth chart we go the more we realize one thing: if the Broncos had any more depth at WR, Congress would probably try to pass legislation to limit it. This is without question the strength of the offense in 2016, and it should give fans reason to expect improvement.
The Quarterback situation. When we look at the arguments above it's easy to forget one thing: from the standpoint of production the Broncos QBs in 2015 were, simply put, replaceable. Remove the names or the fact that one guy had been groomed in the organization for a few years. From a production standpoint the bar is really low. To assume that Sanchez or Siemian or Lynch or some combination of the three cannot do better than 19-23 TDs-INTs is hopeful at best. I initially assumed Sanchez was brought in as depth, then considered the "trade bait" angle, then realized he may be a good fit for the Kubiak offense and have long assumed Sanchez would be the starter. I don't think it's a stretch to believe he can throw for 3500 yards, and maybe a 24-14 or so TD-INT. From a pure production standpoint that is a vast improvement over 2015 numbers. Keep this in mind: In the Kubiak offense it may not be about having the best QB, it's about having the RIGHT QB.
The Offensive Line. Like the QB, this is more a matter of having the right players more so than the best players. With that said, truthfully it takes an extremely optimistic outlook to not foresee potential issues of so much turnover on the line a second straight year. I think they will be decent, but this unit will likely be the biggest weakness on offense. A more mobile QB like Sanchez really can go a long way toward helping with this, but that's a double edged sword. A mobile QB means he is not always getting the ball out fast, which is likely the best remedy for a weak O-line. If the enemy is able to contain the QB, it is going to create problems. With the potential weaknesses on offense, it is going to take the next two groups really stepping up if the offense as a whole is going to improve.
Tight ends. The two-tight end set is a crucial ingredient to the Kubiak offense, and from a blocking standpoint Virgil Green is a huge asset. The unknown here is can he be a "go-to" as a receiving option. Another wild card is 2nd year option Heuerman, who the team was very excited about in 2015 before losing him to injury. We have no clue what to expect from him, or any of the other TEs on the roster. A proof source within the system doesn't really exist, but the potential is there. But in the interest of objectivity, it is legitimately fair to temper one's optimism with this group. I think the Green-Heuerman combo is going to be solid. But that's really just a guess.
The ground game. CJ Anderson returns in better shape than ever, along with Ronnie Hillman, the team's leading rusher from 2015. Those of you who have been around for a while know I'm not a big fan of Hillman but I am actually satisfied the team brought him back for 2016. He adds depth and is a known quantity on an offense full of questions. Anderson should be his reliable self, and maybe even an upgrade over the 2015 version of himself. Adding the rookie Booker bolsters the position group but perhaps the most exciting development I can think of is the addition of the fullback Janovich. This tells me the Broncos are looking to smash people in the F***ing face on offense this year. How many drives ended on a failure to convert 3rd and short? How many FGs did the Broncos kick having failed to punch it in on a short 3rd and goal? I think it is a fair expectation to expect this unit to be a critical cog in the improvement of the offense as a whole.
So there's my short assessment, giving some arguments for why the team will struggle and some rebuttals. I don't think it's an overly optimistic outlook, and where it is, I've acknowledged it as such. You combine a reasonable expectation for improvement on offense with the expectations the defense will be dominant again and it is easy to see why we are all so excited about 2016. It's hard to repeat as Super Bowl champs. But in 2016 only one team has a chance to do it, and that team is the Denver Broncos. And looking at this off season, it should not be a forgone conclusion they won't repeat.
I welcome your thoughts.