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LHG
Former Californian. Hesitant Tennessean.
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Right now, the Giants are performing much better than I expected, in many ways. While some of us may say that this team's performance in the past month and a half was expected, others would say it is surprising. Some of us may expect the team to continue to do well while others expect a regression to occur (and probably right after the trade deadline too). Regardless of where we see the team going, there is some reason for excitement with the players on the field. I've decided to create a list of who is and is not performing well on this team. It is not exhaustive in its analysis so feel free to point out the many flaws in my list (but maybe expect some push back too). Here goes:
Doing Well
Joc Pederson - This has nothing to do with production relative to cost. This is simply based on the .282/.390/.544 slash he has as of this morning, good for an OPS+ of 154 (tops on the team).
Austin Slater - Yes, small sample size for sure. He's been injured and has gotten sporadic playing time but when he gets a chance he has hit - .375/.419/.500 in 43 PAs. He should get more playing time (more on where in a bit).
LaMonte Wade, Jr - We all know how well he's done, so I will only share his OPS+ - 139
JD Davis - As much as I am surprised at how well Wade has done, I'm not surprised at Davis' production. He has shown he can hit when he gets the playing time and he has done just that in 2023. His OPS+ (133) is good for a tied at 2nd among all qualifying 3rd basemen in MLB (and just one point behind Jose Ramirez, the MLB leader at 3rd).
Thairo Estrada - Another infield position getting good production. His OPS+ is 129, tied for 35th best in all of MLB (and 5th among 2nd basemen).
Michael Conforto - He overcome a really slow start to put up fine production in right field (116 OPS+)
Logan Webb - He is good but not 2022 good. So comparing him to last year feels like he should not be on this list but his numbers, on their own, in 2023 are good. So I'm putting him here.
Alex Cobb - I don't know how this guy gets things done, considering his WHIP (1.353) but his ERA+ (142) is best on the rotation. The downside to all the hits and walks is that, in the same amount of starts as Webb, he has gone 9.1 fewer innings.
Camilo Doval/Tyler Rogers - Doval gets all the love, and it is understandable, he is electric and the closer. However, the original Rogers brother (for the Giants) has continued to do what he does so well. Quietly pitch very effectively. The only real difference between the two are saves (16 for Doval, 2 for Rogers) and K rate (13.3 for D, 7.0 for R). Compare many other numbers and tell me which is which: ERA (1.74, 1.95); WHIP (0.940, 0.968); hits per 9 (5.2, 5.5); home runs per 9 (0.6; 0.7); and walks per 9 (3.2, 3.3).
Taylor Rogers - This guy has bounced back from a horrible start to the season to post an ERA+ of 134 thus far in the season. He has become a reliable 7th inning guy on the team.
John Brebbia - Despite his red hair tendencies, he somehow has pitched well enough to be considered one of the teams' better relievers. He has an ERA+ of 133
Getting there
Patrick Bailey - He is off to a good start, mainly. He has an OPS+ of 129 but the 2 walks in 61 PAs is troubling. If he can be a bit more patient, he may be able to stay above average offensively. Combine that with a good defensive reputation and we could have a long term piece to finally replace Posey.
Scott Alexander - This guy has been inconsistent, at times looking like the guy who came up at the end of 2022 and did well and others like a minor league journeyman. He seems to be leaning closer to the former right now and actually has an ERA+ of 121. Solid bullpen piece who seems to be getting better.
Tristan Beck - He has endured a couple of rocky outings toward becoming what may be a solid arm for the long relief role (where one is sorely needed). Only long reliever with an ERA+ above average (115).
Ryan Walker - This guy would fall squarely in the first list if he had some more games under his belt. So far, in 9 appearances, he has an ERA+ of 300! That is very much a good start. Hope he can keep it up!
Luke Jackson - Another great start to 2023 but he only has 4 games pitched thus far, with an ERA+ of 222.
Getting concerning
Anthony DeSclafani - Maybe this is an overreaction but his last few starts have really hurt him. He looked really good through the middle part of May but now his ERA+ is merely 110. That is a big drop.
Mike Yastrzemski - He started off hot and has come crashing down offensively, just like last year. However, his defense is really good. He is still above average offensively, by OPS+ (104) but he is sinking fast.
Blake Sabol - Another good start with a cooling bat. He is now almost exactly league average offensively (101 OPS+). If that downward trend continues, do the Giants bring Bart back up (and/or Luis Matos gets a shot) and he gets returned to Pittsburgh?
Casey Schmitt - There is a theme with this group of hitters. Schmitt, like Bailey, seems adverse to walking but to a greater extreme (1 in 111 PAs). This is really starting to hurt him.
Wilmer Flores - I was wondering whether to put him in this group or the next one and settled for this. His numbers have been tailing off and he is also getting less playing time. In my opinion, he is overrated for the positions he plays and the offense he produces. I think his current OPS+ shows that (95).
Jakob Junis - He started poorly in April, rebounded with a good May but it getting knocked around again in June. Overall, his numbers look worse than 2022, when he started off great but slowly got worse as the season wore on. He may benefit from being used more as a short reliever instead of as the long man.
Not Doing Well
Mitch Haniger - How much longer will he be the primary left fielder? He hasn't been able to get his bat going since getting healthy in late April. An OPS+ of 75 from left field is unacceptable. Maybe more time for Slater here? Or move Yastrzemski to left and call up Luis Matos?
Brandon Crawford - Okay, so his hitting has improve a bit, but the fact that his OPS+ is only at 71 as a result is not good. Yes, it is his swan song and the fact that Schmitt is faltering helps with Crawford's playing time. However, with his faltering defense as well, is it a good idea to regularly start someone with limited offensive ability here on a regular basis?
Joey Bart/Brett Wisely/David Villar/Bryce Johnson/Heliot Ramos - This whole group is either in AAA or injured right now, but a couple of these guys need to step up at some point if/when more injuries occur. Currently, the team has no hitters on the 10 day IL, and only Ramos is on the 60 day, with a possibility of returning this season. So the good news is, no one of this group is needed. We all know that can change quickly.
Ross Stripling/Alex Wood - These two have not looked good at all when healthy. Okay, Wood was good for the first couple of starts but has seen significant regression. Stripling has just looked awful. Both are on the IL right now and hopefully can make adjustments once they get healthy.
Sean Manaea - Just below those two is Manaea, who has settled down to get his ERA+ "up" to 78. Ugh! He is the pitching equivalent of Crawford right now. The fact that he is a "bulk reliever" on a team in need of starters says something when most of his career in the big leagues has been as a traditional starter.
Sean Hjelle/Cole Waites - Neither looked good in limited action with the Giants this year. Hjelle is looking good at AAA as a starter but Waites is struggling in the RiverCats' bullpen as well. One may become a good depth option for the rotation while the other may fall fast on the bullpen depth charts.
Doing Well
Joc Pederson - This has nothing to do with production relative to cost. This is simply based on the .282/.390/.544 slash he has as of this morning, good for an OPS+ of 154 (tops on the team).
Austin Slater - Yes, small sample size for sure. He's been injured and has gotten sporadic playing time but when he gets a chance he has hit - .375/.419/.500 in 43 PAs. He should get more playing time (more on where in a bit).
LaMonte Wade, Jr - We all know how well he's done, so I will only share his OPS+ - 139
JD Davis - As much as I am surprised at how well Wade has done, I'm not surprised at Davis' production. He has shown he can hit when he gets the playing time and he has done just that in 2023. His OPS+ (133) is good for a tied at 2nd among all qualifying 3rd basemen in MLB (and just one point behind Jose Ramirez, the MLB leader at 3rd).
Thairo Estrada - Another infield position getting good production. His OPS+ is 129, tied for 35th best in all of MLB (and 5th among 2nd basemen).
Michael Conforto - He overcome a really slow start to put up fine production in right field (116 OPS+)
Logan Webb - He is good but not 2022 good. So comparing him to last year feels like he should not be on this list but his numbers, on their own, in 2023 are good. So I'm putting him here.
Alex Cobb - I don't know how this guy gets things done, considering his WHIP (1.353) but his ERA+ (142) is best on the rotation. The downside to all the hits and walks is that, in the same amount of starts as Webb, he has gone 9.1 fewer innings.
Camilo Doval/Tyler Rogers - Doval gets all the love, and it is understandable, he is electric and the closer. However, the original Rogers brother (for the Giants) has continued to do what he does so well. Quietly pitch very effectively. The only real difference between the two are saves (16 for Doval, 2 for Rogers) and K rate (13.3 for D, 7.0 for R). Compare many other numbers and tell me which is which: ERA (1.74, 1.95); WHIP (0.940, 0.968); hits per 9 (5.2, 5.5); home runs per 9 (0.6; 0.7); and walks per 9 (3.2, 3.3).
Taylor Rogers - This guy has bounced back from a horrible start to the season to post an ERA+ of 134 thus far in the season. He has become a reliable 7th inning guy on the team.
John Brebbia - Despite his red hair tendencies, he somehow has pitched well enough to be considered one of the teams' better relievers. He has an ERA+ of 133
Getting there
Patrick Bailey - He is off to a good start, mainly. He has an OPS+ of 129 but the 2 walks in 61 PAs is troubling. If he can be a bit more patient, he may be able to stay above average offensively. Combine that with a good defensive reputation and we could have a long term piece to finally replace Posey.
Scott Alexander - This guy has been inconsistent, at times looking like the guy who came up at the end of 2022 and did well and others like a minor league journeyman. He seems to be leaning closer to the former right now and actually has an ERA+ of 121. Solid bullpen piece who seems to be getting better.
Tristan Beck - He has endured a couple of rocky outings toward becoming what may be a solid arm for the long relief role (where one is sorely needed). Only long reliever with an ERA+ above average (115).
Ryan Walker - This guy would fall squarely in the first list if he had some more games under his belt. So far, in 9 appearances, he has an ERA+ of 300! That is very much a good start. Hope he can keep it up!
Luke Jackson - Another great start to 2023 but he only has 4 games pitched thus far, with an ERA+ of 222.
Getting concerning
Anthony DeSclafani - Maybe this is an overreaction but his last few starts have really hurt him. He looked really good through the middle part of May but now his ERA+ is merely 110. That is a big drop.
Mike Yastrzemski - He started off hot and has come crashing down offensively, just like last year. However, his defense is really good. He is still above average offensively, by OPS+ (104) but he is sinking fast.
Blake Sabol - Another good start with a cooling bat. He is now almost exactly league average offensively (101 OPS+). If that downward trend continues, do the Giants bring Bart back up (and/or Luis Matos gets a shot) and he gets returned to Pittsburgh?
Casey Schmitt - There is a theme with this group of hitters. Schmitt, like Bailey, seems adverse to walking but to a greater extreme (1 in 111 PAs). This is really starting to hurt him.
Wilmer Flores - I was wondering whether to put him in this group or the next one and settled for this. His numbers have been tailing off and he is also getting less playing time. In my opinion, he is overrated for the positions he plays and the offense he produces. I think his current OPS+ shows that (95).
Jakob Junis - He started poorly in April, rebounded with a good May but it getting knocked around again in June. Overall, his numbers look worse than 2022, when he started off great but slowly got worse as the season wore on. He may benefit from being used more as a short reliever instead of as the long man.
Not Doing Well
Mitch Haniger - How much longer will he be the primary left fielder? He hasn't been able to get his bat going since getting healthy in late April. An OPS+ of 75 from left field is unacceptable. Maybe more time for Slater here? Or move Yastrzemski to left and call up Luis Matos?
Brandon Crawford - Okay, so his hitting has improve a bit, but the fact that his OPS+ is only at 71 as a result is not good. Yes, it is his swan song and the fact that Schmitt is faltering helps with Crawford's playing time. However, with his faltering defense as well, is it a good idea to regularly start someone with limited offensive ability here on a regular basis?
Joey Bart/Brett Wisely/David Villar/Bryce Johnson/Heliot Ramos - This whole group is either in AAA or injured right now, but a couple of these guys need to step up at some point if/when more injuries occur. Currently, the team has no hitters on the 10 day IL, and only Ramos is on the 60 day, with a possibility of returning this season. So the good news is, no one of this group is needed. We all know that can change quickly.
Ross Stripling/Alex Wood - These two have not looked good at all when healthy. Okay, Wood was good for the first couple of starts but has seen significant regression. Stripling has just looked awful. Both are on the IL right now and hopefully can make adjustments once they get healthy.
Sean Manaea - Just below those two is Manaea, who has settled down to get his ERA+ "up" to 78. Ugh! He is the pitching equivalent of Crawford right now. The fact that he is a "bulk reliever" on a team in need of starters says something when most of his career in the big leagues has been as a traditional starter.
Sean Hjelle/Cole Waites - Neither looked good in limited action with the Giants this year. Hjelle is looking good at AAA as a starter but Waites is struggling in the RiverCats' bullpen as well. One may become a good depth option for the rotation while the other may fall fast on the bullpen depth charts.
