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Moose's Personal Outtake on Cap Hell

Fountain City Blues

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Note that everything I list below is based on Overthecap.com numbers as of the date of post.
Well, folks, the dreaded words "Cap Hell" have been heaved upon this offseason with two possible top 5 players at their respective positions needing big paydays. I am not so sure that is quite true given the money that can be taken away from low level guys like Donnie Avery, but in any kind of mental gymnastics, the Chiefs are in a bit of a tough spot if there's any hope to upgrade the team, at least through FA; draft may be a different story with 11 draft picks. I am not at all savvy when it comes to the cap, so hopefully I won't make too many mistakes here.

Per overthecap, the Chiefs are ~1.57M over the $142,246,790 projected salary cap. Again, the salary cap could actually be a bit higher, but let's go off of overthecap's projection, for the sake of this exercise.

The Obvious cuts- guys who quite bluntly, are paid >1M, and just are not very good at pro football; or just redundant:

Donnie Avery
AJ Jenkins
Chase Daniel

After cutting these players, the Chiefs are now ~5.4M under the cap, erm... not enough for Houston, the draft, Hudson, and role players, etc. So, let's continue while using these cuts as a baseline going forward.

It might hurt, but it might not either in the draft.

Fasano: While very useful as a #2 TE, it's a bit rich of the blood and KC already has Kelce and almost assuredly a very athletic Demetrius Harris. If you are in the Jeff Heuerman bandwagon (or some other TE past round 1) this is an easy decision- cut. If not, this might be a bit trickier. I'll lean towards cutting Fasano here for this exercise.

Walker : Signed last year, but didn't receive a ton a playing time. Did provide pressure when he was present on the field, however. Cutting him brings his cap number down from 3.75M to 2M. Not a huge cut, so it's kind of debatable depending what your view is of guys like Allen Bailey (who received an extension keep in mind) Jaye Howard, Catapano, etc. I would lean towards keeping Walker, personally.

After cutting Fasano, the Chiefs are now ~ 6.8M under the projected cap.

The Eric Berry Situation

Eric Berry's situation complicates matters here. There's a pretty solid chance he is not playing football next season; so there is some question of what will happen to the sizeable cap number. Since this situation has nothing to do with the NFL injuries per se, Eric Berry may be placed on a special list here- the NFL List, iirtnc.. On this list, the Chiefs can actually choose how much they pay him- they could technically pay him nothing for example; or his contract in full. Based on precedent, Berry will receive ~50% of his projected pay in good faith, so let's assume precedent repeats here.

50% of Berry's pay would equate to $4,178,850 against the cap.

The Chiefs are now ~$11,061,983 based on what OvertheCap.com is showing me + (Eric Berry * .5)

The Achilles Brothers- To cut, or not to cut; not listing McKnight (sorry Buck) since he is a actually a FA.

DeVito-a nice run stuffing presence would be nice for a defense that was near the bottom giving up a 4.7 YPC on the ground. However, he is coming off an Achilles injury. It's a tough pill to swallow, but I think you have to pull the trigger in order to get a serious deal on the table for Hudson, Houston, etc. I think this is a pretty clear cut candidate as well.

Johnson- also tore his Achilles past 30, not good news. On the other hand, JMJ and Mauga at ILB... even worse news? 75% Derrick Johnson might be worth the money he is due, a little over 5M, and could significantly upgrade ILB- even if it isn't quite the pro bowler we are used to seeing. It won't bring us back to a 4 YPC against; it's not happening with how much this team plays nickel, but you'll see a lot less of the cheap 5 yard runs we have been drummed with be more determined teams. Could elevate the RZ Run defense from average to noticeably above average, potentially. You could cut him, but I would hedge our bets here and keep him despite the Achilles...look at what Suggs has done lately.

If we go with my cuts, the Chiefs are now $14,564,605 under the cap. At this point, a Franchise Tag for Justin Houston is on the table. Still not enough for Rodney Hudson, role players, and draftees, so let's churn some more of the roster.

Linebacker: $13.08M

Honorable mention: Joe Mays. This spot kind of depends on what you want to do with Derrick Johnson. If you cut Johnson, I think you probably should keep Mays; if you keep Johnson, you could keep Mays and push down the ILB can down the road another year.

I'll play along (since I want either McKinney or Kendricks if they grade out high enough)

After cutting Mays, the Chiefs now $16,829,605 under the cap based on Overthecap's numbers.

Big Money, Big Problems- This is where the real pain/crux is going to be felt in our quest to make enough cap room for the draft, Houston, Hudson, and role players.

Dwayne Bowe- our friendly neighborhood #2 receiver. Slated to get a huge $14,000,000 for a little over 700 yards and 0 TD's... EEEK. I understand this team was 28th in passing attempts... but... uh, Bowe is not worth $14,000,000, period. However, cutting him has the obvious effect of cutting our only sure bet at WR- and our best one. You're a brave soul if you want Albert Wilson being your only starter coming into the draft.

What we might have here is a paycut candidate. Bowe isn't getting this much money in FA, and has value to the team; so a pay cut is possible here. Now, where is the point that Bowe and his Agent bail to test the FA waters? Not sure. My guess is 10M is about the best case scenario with a pay cut. Straight up cutting him would still leave him with a cap number of 9,000,000.

The nuclear option, so to speak, would be to designate him as a June 1st cut. This would kick some of that money down to next year's cap (ugh) but it would create a huge amount of cap room right now. If you designate him for a June 1st cut, the Chiefs at this point would have $27,394,640 in cap room. At that point, signing Houston to a long term deal is very doable. Even if we get really aggressive and say he gets 6/100, we should be ok.

Tamba Hali- Good player, but worth nearly 12 million for 6 sacks? I would wager no. Here's an interesting tidbit though from Hali earlier from an interview that can be seen in the Tamba Hali thread.

"At this stage of my career, it isn't about money," said Tamba.

"The Chiefs have taken care of me financially. I have some good people in my corner who have positioned me to live a lifestyle a lot of people won't be able to live. I'm not one of those guys who gets all bent out of shape over money. I love to play the game and I want to win a championship in Kansas City. If money is going to be a hindrance in doing that, we'll find a way. It's not about money."

"We gotta get Houston paid"

"I'm very optimistic [about returning to Kansas City]," Tamba said. "I love being in Kansas City. I've played nine years there. I enjoy playing for our team. I love the staff that came in. Andy [Reid] and his staff. So, yeah, I enjoy being there and I would love to finish my career in Kansas City. I can't imagine being somewhere else. I'm just being optimistic."

"The two teams playing in the Super Bowl, we whipped them at Arrowhead," Tamba said. "Whipped them. Our fans know. Our players in the building know what kind of team we have. We have to put it together. Money is not going to be the issue. It's gonna be health and the want to do it."

Essentially, there are two options, an extension where the current money is spread around over the next few years, or an outright paycut. I'd prefer a restructure as Hali does have a positive contribution to the team, it's just a money issue here. I am not sure exactly what this would look like, but it'd be substantially less that the current 11M+ cap hit.

Alex Smith- with a guy with this much money, there's actually a trick with restructuring his contract that the Chiefs strictly control; Alex Smith can't say no. It would free up roughly 8 million in cap space this year, but the guaranteed money would probably be spread out towards 2017- which is when the Chiefs plan keeping him up until anyways, most likely. Considering this is the same FO that gave Alex, at least as a matter of proportion, a similar number of guaranteed money that a Peyton Manning would have, it's a not a bad bet that this happens as well.

Conclusion: The Chiefs could create over 35 Million in cap space if they really want to, but there are some consequences as well for next season, in the draft, and down the road. Alex, Bowe, and Hali will be the kingpins of the Chiefs' FA options. They'll lose a lot of talent, but a great deal of that talent wasn't essential to what the team accomplished in 2014 due to injuries, lack of playing time, etc, so there's some hope this won't be debilitating either if they are cutthroat about the cap.
 

Fountain City Blues

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My Personal Cut List as of Right Now:


Avery
Jenkins
Bowe
DeVito
Fasano
Daniel
Joe Mays

Restructure:

Hali
A.Smith

NFL List:

Berry
 

Black Adam

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My Personal Cut List as of Right Now:


Avery
Jenkins
Bowe
DeVito
Fasano
Daniel
Joe Mays

Restructure:

Hali
A.Smith

NFL List:

Berry

good list...

i'm hearing that more contract negotiations for Houston are gonna happen at the combine this week. guessing that's gonna have a large effect on the rest of your scenario...
 

NJBuckO's

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If they can somehow raise enough $$ to go after Torrey Smith or Cobb that would be nice. Smith could give them the deep threat they sorely lack. Some draftniks have talked about drafting speedster Devin Smith but he's a bit of a raw talent. DGB could be very tempting but I don't see Dorsey as the roll the dice GM to draft him. If he's there in the 2nd they definately would look at it but I'm sure he'll be gone. As for McKnight if he proves healthy they absolutely have to bring him back, as his production could far outweigh the cost for a cap strapped team. Bowe needs to make 30% less or just let him go and figure it out through the draft and FA. His production isn't all that irreplaceable if you do some maneuvering.
 

Fountain City Blues

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If they can somehow raise enough $$ to go after Torrey Smith or Cobb that would be nice. Smith could give them the deep threat they sorely lack. Some draftniks have talked about drafting speedster Devin Smith but he's a bit of a raw talent. DGB could be very tempting but I don't see Dorsey as the roll the dice GM to draft him. If he's there in the 2nd they definately would look at it but I'm sure he'll be gone. As for McKnight if he proves healthy they absolutely have to bring him back, as his production could far outweigh the cost for a cap strapped team. Bowe needs to make 30% less or just let him go and figure it out through the draft and FA. His production isn't all that irreplaceable if you do some maneuvering.

It's going to be really tough if we want to keep Houston and Hudson; even tough with a FT on Houston. Another guy I'd like would be a Cecil Shorts type. Cheapish and is pretty damn good when he is upright; just has been hidden on a crappy Jags team.
 

Black Adam

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If they can somehow raise enough $$ to go after Torrey Smith or Cobb that would be nice. Smith could give them the deep threat they sorely lack. Some draftniks have talked about drafting speedster Devin Smith but he's a bit of a raw talent. DGB could be very tempting but I don't see Dorsey as the roll the dice GM to draft him. If he's there in the 2nd they definately would look at it but I'm sure he'll be gone. As for McKnight if he proves healthy they absolutely have to bring him back, as his production could far outweigh the cost for a cap strapped team. Bowe needs to make 30% less or just let him go and figure it out through the draft and FA. His production isn't all that irreplaceable if you do some maneuvering.

i think we can all agree that Bowe is pretty much expendable. make him take the pay cut or let him walk...

as far as McKnight i'm inclined to agree if he stays healthy. was a huge fan of this kid when he played at USC...
 

Black Adam

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It's going to be really tough if we want to keep Houston and Hudson; even tough with a FT on Houston. Another guy I'd like would be a Cecil Shorts type. Cheapish and is pretty damn good when he is upright; just has been hidden on a crappy Jags team.

MUST keep these 2...especially Houston. any chance of playoffs imo hinges on keeping these 2 on the roster...
 

Fountain City Blues

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MUST keep these 2...especially Houston. any chance of playoffs imo hinges on keeping these 2 on the roster...

If we don't get Hudson back, there's a real solid chance we get Wiz Jr from the Raiders. Decent center, but he's not on Hudson's level, imo. Houston staying is pretty close to a mortal lock, it's just a question of how long and how much.
 

Fountain City Blues

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A real wild card would be what if Dorsey thinks Maclin > Hudson. Would we be ok with that?
 

MHSL82

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One of the pressing questions facing the organization is whether or not Smith is willing to restructure his contract to give the Chiefs an easier cap hit. Before last season, Smith signed a four-year extension through 2018 that is worth $45 million guaranteed.

Smith is clear he’s a team player although the topic, according to the quarterback, has not yet been brought up to him by management.

“I haven’t really given it a ton of thought, I haven’t really been approached by it,” Smith said. “I’m obviously willing to do anything to help the team and help us get better — whatever that is.

“Changing around things, that’s not really my area of expertise. Those guys handle that but you’re willing to shift things around to help the team out. As a quarterback — why not?

“I haven’t been in talks with that and so it’s purely speculation at this point.”

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article10605500.html
 

MHSL82

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Surprise: Non-Exclusive for Houston.

I hate this. I understand tagging him because that's the only way KC can guarantee they have a chance to keep him (option to match). But now, it's bad for Houston in two ways:

1. Despite its money, players don't like to be franchised.
2. Non-exclusive is less money and perhaps an insult. Plus, he has an incentive to look elsewhere, even if KC can match. There's that price being raised.

If a team matches, do they have to take the same form as signed? Could a team put 20 M into year one and then 10 in the next? KC barely has room for the 13 as it is. Can KC raise the price but put 10 in the first and 21 in the second (numbers are for illustrative purposes only).
 

Fountain City Blues

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I hate this. I understand tagging him because that's the only way KC can guarantee they have a chance to keep him (option to match). But now, it's bad for Houston in two ways:

1. Despite its money, players don't like to be franchised.
2. Non-exclusive is less money and perhaps an insult. Plus, he has an incentive to look elsewhere, even if KC can match. There's that price being raised.

If a team matches, do they have to take the same form as signed? Could a team put 20 M into year one and then 10 in the next? KC barely has room for the 13 as it is. Can KC raise the price but put 10 in the first and 21 in the second (numbers are for illustrative purposes only).

I am not sure about that in the current CBA. Pretty sure it was dubbed as the "poison pill" of sorts in the last CBA.

The only good thing that can come of this is Houston shops himself around and figures out the $ amount isn't as high as he thinks it is. He dropped into coverage 175 times, and STILL got 22 sacks. That's really scary to think about; is that worth JJ Watt money?. I certainly would like a long term deal before Suh gets his (probably with da Raidahs) deal done. I don't want Houston going anywhere. He'll get tagged again this time next year if he isn't willing to get together on a long term deal.
 
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